A Caution to Keir Starmer drawn from His Personal History: If You're Not Bold on Brexit and Europe, His Labour Rivals Will Be.

Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift in Position & Closed Debates

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk and A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the impact just a few words had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.